Germany's First Cannabis Law Evaluation: What the "Slight Increase" Really Means

November 15, 2025 begins with a headline running through all German media outlets: "Study suggests only slight increase in cannabis consumption – despite partial legalization" (Deutschlandfunk). The message seems clear: Germany's Cannabis Law (CanG/Cannabisgesetz) has increased consumption. But this oversimplification obscures a complex data landscape. The first EKOCAN interim report – the official scientific evaluation of the law – shows a completely different picture: The increase among adults is statistically insignificant, youth protection works better than expected, and nearly 50% of the black market has already disappeared after just eight months (Science Media Center).

Background: What is the EKOCAN Report and Who's Behind It?

The Official Evaluation of Germany's Cannabis Law

What the media labels as a "study" is actually the first interim report of the evaluation of the Consumer Cannabis Law (EKOCAN/Evaluation des Konsumcannabisgesetzes). This evaluation isn't just any investigation – it's the official, scientifically-backed monitoring of legalization, mandated by the law itself (§ 43 KCanG) (KCanG Legal Text).

The evaluation project was commissioned by Germany's Federal Ministry of Health (Bundesgesundheitsministerium/BMG) and is conducted by a consortium of leading German addiction research institutes. These include the IFT Institute for Therapy Research (IFT Munich), research teams from the Universities of Hamburg, Düsseldorf, and Tübingen, as well as recognized experts like Prof. Dr. Bernd Werse from the Institute for Addiction Research in Frankfurt (Science Media Center).

The Data Source: The Epidemiological Survey on Substance Abuse (ESA) 2024

The core data on consumption behavior presented today comes primarily from the Epidemiological Survey on Substance Abuse (Epidemiologischer Suchtsurvey/ESA) 2024. The ESA isn't a new invention for CanG – it's Germany's most established recurring cross-sectional survey on drug affinity. It's been conducted for years, allowing for standardized and valid comparisons with previous years (e.g., ESA 2021).

For the 2024 survey, 7,534 people aged 18 to 64 were interviewed (Science Media Center). The survey was conducted between August and December 2024 – just a few months after the law took effect.

The Critical Limitation: The Time Factor

The most important methodological point that most media reports overlook: Germany's Cannabis Law (Pillar 1) came into force in two stages. On April 1, 2024, possession and home growing were legalized; on July 1, 2024, Cannabis Social Clubs (CSCs) officially started operations.

The ESA 2024 survey began four months after home growing legalization and only one month after CSCs could earliest start. At that point, CSCs had distributed legal cannabis for at most 1-2 months. Home growing had just enabled the first legal harvest (an autoflower requires about 3 months, a photoperiod plant 4-5 months until dry harvest).

The scientists state this limitation unambiguously in their publication: "The KCanG has only been in force for a short time, and the effects of the legislation probably have not yet fully unfolded" (Science Media Center). The available data doesn't show the "new normal" – it's a snapshot during the disruption.

Analysis Part 1: The Headline – What the "Slight Increase" Really Means

The Statistical Reality Check

Media coverage focuses on a single number: The 12-month prevalence – the percentage of 18- to 64-year-olds who consumed cannabis at least once in the past 12 months – rose from 8.8% (ESA 2021) to 9.8% (ESA 2024) (Science Media Center).

This nominal increase of 1.0 percentage point is the basis for the November 15 headline. But the primary source makes a crucial point: This increase is not statistically significant.

"Not significant" in science doesn't mean "unimportant." It means that the measured difference (9.8 vs. 8.8) is so small that it could likely have occurred by pure chance, measurement inaccuracies, or natural fluctuations in the sampled population. It's not scientific evidence that consumption in the overall population has actually increased.

The Long-Term Trend: Consumption Rose Faster Under Prohibition

To contextualize this number, you must look at the long-term trend provided by the ESA survey:

• 2012: 4.5%
• 2021: 8.8%
• 2024: 9.8% (not significantly higher than 2021)

This data shows: The societal trend toward higher consumption was much stronger before legalization, under prohibition. Between 2012 and 2021, under full prohibition, consumption nearly doubled (an increase of 4.3 percentage points). The current nominal increase of 1.0 percentage point is minimal in comparison and likely just represents the continuation of an already existing societal trend.

The real news is therefore not "slight increase" but the absence of the predicted consumption explosion. The "floodgate" scenarios of legalization opponents have not materialized according to the first official evaluation 4-8 months after CanG's launch.

Analysis Part 2: Youth Protection Works – The Report's Biggest Surprise

The Main Argument of Opponents is Refuted

While the media focuses on adult numbers, the report's biggest surprise hides elsewhere: in youth protection. The main argument against CanG was always the "danger to our children." The concern: De-stigmatization through adult legalization would normalize consumption among minors.

The EKOCAN interim report, which compiles data from several specialized youth surveys (like MoSyD from Frankfurt and SCHULBUS from Hamburg), comes to a diametrically opposed conclusion (EKOCAN Interim Report).

Key Youth Protection Results (Ages 12-17)

• The Trend Holds: Cannabis consumption prevalence among youth (12-17 years) in Germany has been declining since 2019.
• No CanG Negative Effect: This already existing positive downward trend "seems to continue even after the KCanG came into force."
• Age of First Use Stable: There's no evidence that the average age of first use is declining. In fact, there are even indications of an increase in the average age of first use. The median age remains stable at 15 to 16 years.
• Less Early Use: The proportion of youth who start using very early (before age 14) has been trending downward since 2009.

This data strips the empirical foundation from the "moral panic" argument that dominated the entire political debate in 2023 and 2024. Frankfurt's MoSyD study by Prof. Werse already pointed in this direction with local data in June 2025 (Frankfurt.de), but the EKOCAN report now confirms this at the federal level.

Why Does Youth Protection Work? The data supports the legalization proponents' hypothesis: An honest drug policy focused on prevention and health protection, as CanG's accompanying text demands, apparently resonates better with youth than a pure prohibition policy that increases the allure of the forbidden and makes factual education more difficult.

Analysis Part 3: Consumption Forms and Supply Channels – How CanG Drains the Market

The Revolution in Supply Sources

The EKOCAN report provides the first official numbers on perhaps the most important question: Is it succeeding in draining the black market? The data from ESA 2024, collected just a few months after Pillar 1's launch, is unambiguous (Science Media Center):

• About one in four consumers (approx. 25%) reported being a member of a Cannabis Social Club (CSC).
• More than one in five consumers (approx. 22%) practices home growing.

These two legal sources from Pillar 1 (CSCs + home growing) already serve nearly 50% of consumers after just 4-8 months of existence.

A separate study published in August 2025 (KonCanG) led by Prof. Werse, which surveyed a larger sample (N=11,471) of rather intensive consumers, confirms this trend even more drastically: 88.4% of surveyed consumers reported having generally obtained legally produced cannabis in the past six months (home growing, CSCs, pharmacies). Before CanG, this figure (e.g., pharmacy access) was only 23.5% (ResearchGate).

This is measurable evidence that CanG's primary objective (§ 1 KCanG) – draining the black market – is working not just theoretically but practically and at high speed. This directly correlates with the also reported declines in cannabis-related criminal proceedings in the EKOCAN context.

The Public Health Dilemma: Tobacco in the Joint

At the same time, the report ruthlessly reveals a massive public health problem. Success in combating the black market doesn't automatically mean success in health protection.

The ESA data shows (Science Media Center):

• By far the most common consumption form is the joint (88.6%).
• Almost 70% of these consumers reported (almost) always consuming cannabis together with tobacco.

CanG in its current form (Pillar 1) legalizes the cultivation and possession of cannabis flowers and hashish. However, it doesn't create legal, regulated, ready-to-consume alternatives like edibles, tinctures, or quality-tested vape cartridges.

The ESA 2024 data now proves that when consumers only receive flowers legally, they stick with their learned and harmful consumption forms: They mix the legal, clean flowers with highly harmful tobacco. CanG is successfully fighting the black market for cannabis, but not the health risks from tobacco co-consumption.

The Strongest Argument for Pillar 2 This finding (the high rate of mixed consumption) is the strongest scientific argument for the immediate need for Pillar 2 (pilot projects), as only there could the sale of alternative, smoke-free products (edibles, etc.) have been tested to offer consumers a path away from harmful smoking.

Reactions: How Politics and Medicine Interpret the Report

The Pro Camp (Traffic Light Coalition Parties, German Hemp Association)

Supporters view the report as a complete success and clear confirmation of the chosen course. SPD rapporteur for CanG, Carmen Wegge, is quoted as saying: "The independent evaluation confirms that the chosen path is working" (German Hemp Association).

Context for expats: SPD (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands) is Germany's center-left Social Democratic Party, comparable to UK Labour or US Democrats. The "Traffic Light Coalition" (Ampelkoalition) refers to the current government coalition of SPD (red), Greens (green), and FDP/Free Democrats (yellow).

The pro-camp's argument focuses on the objectively positive core results:

• Youth Protection: Consumption among minors continues to decline. The main argument of opponents is refuted.
• Black Market: The market is being massively pushed back (nearly 50% market share for CSCs/home growing).
• Justice System: Authorities are being relieved as planned.
• Adults: The "consumption explosion" didn't happen; the increase is statistically irrelevant.

The Opposition Camp (CDU/CSU, Medical Associations)

Opponents of legalization also see their worst fears confirmed and demand stricter rules or complete repeal of the law. President of the German Medical Association Klaus Reinhardt reiterated in September that the medical profession still considers "the legalization of cannabis to be wrong" (Ärzteblatt).

Context for expats: CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union) are Germany's main conservative parties, similar to UK Conservatives or moderate Republicans in the US. CDU operates nationwide, CSU only in Bavaria. Together they form the largest opposition bloc in the Bundestag (German Parliament).

The opposition camp's argument focuses on:

• Adults: The nominal increase to 9.8% is cited as evidence of dangerous normalization. The lack of statistical significance is ignored in political discourse.
• Health Protection: The extremely high rate of tobacco mixed consumption (almost 70%) is viewed as evidence of the law's public health failure.

Outlook: After the Report Comes Pillar 2 – The Battle for Pilot Projects

The De Facto End of Pillar 2

The publication of the EKOCAN interim report coincides with a second, at least equally important piece of news: the de facto end of Pillar 2.

As the German Hemp Association (DHV) reports, the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (Bundesanstalt für Landwirtschaft und Ernährung/BLE) has rejected applications for the scientific pilot projects (Pillar 2) (German Hemp Association). Cities like Hannover, which wanted to scientifically monitor legal commercial sale of cannabis products in specialty stores, received rejections.

This leads to a politically schizophrenic situation:

• The Federal Ministry of Health (BMG) publishes the EKOCAN report, celebrating Pillar 1's (partial) success in combating the black market and in youth protection.
• The same EKOCAN report also ruthlessly proves Pillar 1's failure on health protection (harm reduction) by showing the massive prevalence of harmful tobacco mixed consumption.
• The logical and scientific consequence of this report would be the immediate initiation of Pillar 2 to test smoke-free alternatives (edibles, vapes) and combat tobacco consumption.
• But at precisely this moment, the BLE – an agency under the (FDP-led) Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food – actively blocks this next logical step.

Context for expats: FDP (Freie Demokratische Partei/Free Democratic Party) is a pro-business, classical liberal party, the junior partner in the Traffic Light Coalition. This internal coalition conflict shows how different ministries can work at cross-purposes.

The government positively evaluates its own first step, while another part of the same government actively prevents the scientifically necessary second step (Pillar 2).

The Road Ahead

This is only the first interim report. The evaluation is planned for several years, and scientists emphasize that long-term effects and the full impact of CSCs can only be seriously assessed in coming years. Politically, however, this report cements the fronts. The Traffic Light Coalition parties book it as a success, while the CDU/CSU will work toward repealing the law after the next federal election (Bundestagswahl).

Opportunities & Risks

• Opportunity – Evidence-Based Policy: The report provides valid data instead of ideology for the first time. It shows what works (black market combat, youth protection) and what doesn't (harm reduction).
• Risk – Political Instrumentalization: Both camps use the same data for opposing narratives. The danger: The factual level disappears behind ideology.
• Opportunity – Public Health Optimization: The tobacco data is a clear mandate: Pillar 2 must come to enable smoke-free alternatives.
• Risk – Pillar 2 Blockade: The BLE rejection is the real scandal. Without Pillar 2, the law remains a half-success with massive health risks.
• Opportunity – Long-Term Normalization: The data shows: The law doesn't trigger panic. This could lead to a more factual debate in the medium term.

Conclusion: Separating Wheat from Chaff – What the Report Really Says

The first EKOCAN interim report is here, and it's a necessary reality check for both camps in the cannabis debate.

The "moral panic" of legalization opponents – warnings of a consumption explosion among adults and a floodgate effect in youth protection – is empirically refuted. The first official data 4-8 months after legalization shows stability among adults and an encouragingly positive, continued downward trend in youth protection.

But the topic isn't closed. This report shifts the battlefields of the debate:

• The Battle Over Statistics: Opponents will use the nominal increase (9.8%) as a weapon, while supporters emphasize the statistical irrelevance of this increase.
• The Battle Over Health: Supporters have youth protection on their side. Opponents have the harmful tobacco mixed consumption (almost 70%) as a valid counterargument.
• The Battle Over Pillar 2: The report provides the scientific necessity for Pillar 2 to solve the tobacco problem. Simultaneously, politics (BLE) has de facto blocked Pillar 2.

CanG (Pillar 1) seems to be doing exactly what it should according to this initial data: Pushing back the black market (with nearly 50% market share) and relieving the justice system, without endangering youth protection. However, the report also ruthlessly reveals Pillar 1's weakness: It's not an effective public health instrument for promoting safer consumption forms.

The blockade of Pillar 2, which should have addressed precisely this problem, is therefore the real scandal that only becomes fully visible through the EKOCAN report of November 15, 2025.