Germany's First Cannabis Evaluation – What Does It Really Mean?

What Happened?

On November 15, 2025, scientists published the first results on cannabis legalization in Germany. Since April 1, 2024, cannabis has been partially legal in Germany – you can possess it, grow it at home, and cultivate it collectively in Cannabis Social Clubs (CSCs).

Now, for the first time, researchers checked: What has changed since then? Do more people consume cannabis? Are youth at risk? Is the law working?

The answer surprises many: Most things are working better than expected. But there's also one big problem.

The Bottom Line

Why Is This Important?

Before legalization, there were many fears. Critics said: "If cannabis becomes legal, many more people will consume it – especially young people." The first numbers show: That didn't happen.

Adult consumption barely increased. Youth consumption even continued to decline. This means: The biggest fears were not confirmed.

How Was This Researched?

The data comes from a large survey regularly conducted in Germany. It's called the "Epidemiological Survey on Substance Abuse" (Epidemiologischer Suchtsurvey/ESA). Over 7,500 people aged 18 to 64 were surveyed.

The survey took place between August and December 2024 – just a few months after legalization. That's why the scientists themselves say: "It's still too early for a final verdict. We can only really see the long-term effects in a few years."

What Does "Statistically Not Significant" Mean?

The media reports: "Consumption has slightly increased." That's true – but only on paper. The researchers say: The difference is so small that it could have happened by chance. In science, this is called "statistically not significant."

An example: If you flip a coin 100 times, it might land on heads 52 times and tails 48 times. That doesn't mean the coin is unfair – that's normal chance.

It's the same here: The increase from 8.8% to 9.8% is so small that you can't say for sure: "This is because of the new law."

Youth Protection Works

The most important result for many: Young people are not consuming more cannabis, but less. This trend has been running since 2019 – and it didn't reverse after legalization.

This contradicts the main argument of opponents. They said: "If cannabis is legal for adults, young people will think it's harmless – and start consuming more." The numbers show: That didn't happen.

The age of first use also remains stable at 15-16 years. Fewer and fewer young people start very early (before age 14).

The Black Market Is Losing

A major goal of the law was: Dry up the illegal market. This seems to be working. Almost 50% of consumers now get cannabis legally:

• 25% are members of a Cannabis Social Club
• 22% grow it themselves

This is impressive – because Cannabis Social Clubs were only allowed to start on July 1, 2024. In just a few months, they've already captured a quarter of the market.

The result: Fewer people have to go to illegal dealers. That was one of the law's most important goals.

The Big Problem: Tobacco

Now comes the bad news: Almost 9 out of 10 consumers smoke cannabis as a joint. And almost 70% mix it with tobacco.

This is a massive health problem. Tobacco is extremely harmful – often more harmful than the cannabis itself. But the law only allows growing cannabis flowers. There are no legal alternatives like:

• Edible products (edibles)
• Oils or tinctures
• Vaporizer cartridges (vapes)

This means: The law fights the black market, but not unhealthy consumption forms. People who can only get flowers legally do what they've always done: They roll a joint – with tobacco.

Why Are There No Alternatives?

Germany's Cannabis Law has two parts (pillars):

• Pillar 1: Home growing and Cannabis Social Clubs (running since April 2024)
• Pillar 2: Pilot projects in cities that can sell cannabis in specialty stores – where you could also offer edibles, oils, or vapes

Pillar 2 was supposed to solve exactly this tobacco problem. But now came the news: The agency that must approve these pilot projects rejected all applications. Cities like Hannover wanted to open cannabis specialty stores – and got a "no."

This is the real scandal: The evaluation shows that Pillar 2 is urgently needed. But politics is blocking it.

How Is Politics Reacting?

Supporters (SPD, Greens, FDP – the Traffic Light Coalition): They say: "The numbers show that our law is working. Youth protection is intact, the black market is shrinking, the justice system is being relieved."

Context: The Traffic Light Coalition (Ampelkoalition) is Germany's current government: SPD (center-left Social Democrats, red), Greens (green), and FDP (pro-business liberals, yellow).

Opponents (CDU/CSU – the Christian Democrats, Medical Association): They say: "Consumption is rising. This proves that legalization was wrong. Plus there's now way too much tobacco mixed consumption – that's dangerous."

Context: CDU/CSU are Germany's main conservative opposition parties, similar to UK Conservatives. They're the largest opposition bloc in the Bundestag (German Parliament).

Both sides use the same numbers for completely different arguments.

Why This Matters

This evaluation is the first official review of Germany's Cannabis Law. It shows:

• The biggest fears (consumption explosion, youth endangerment) didn't materialize
• The main goals (fight black market, relieve justice system) are working
• But: The law doesn't protect consumers' health well enough

The solution would be Pillar 2 – but that's exactly what was just stopped. This means: The law remains incomplete. It fights the black market, but it doesn't help make consumption safer.